Failure to Act Ensures Failure to protect life–where security trumps sovereignty

With more and more evidence pointing to Pakistani militant groups being responsible for last weeks Mumbai Massacre, many, including myself, are beginning to wonder if international rights of sovereignty can be ignored for the sake of global security. Bob Graham, former chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee and senior intelligence advisor to Barack Obama, came out with a report as part of a government panel’s investigation on the likelihood of a weapon of mass destruction reaching American soil. What they found was startling. “it was our conclusion based on 250 interviews with academics, scientists, and military and political  intelligence  officials, that it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in some place in the world prior to the end of the year 2013. We also found that it was more likely that that weapon would be biological than nuclear. We also found that our margin of safety has been diminishing…there have been changes in the environment in which we have been operating particularly as it relates to biological weapons which have become more accessible to potential terrorists.” Graham goes on to say in an interview with Newsweek Magazine that the WMD will most likely come out of Pakistan.

Research by Graham and others has shown that potentially catastrophic biological weapons could become available to terrorists with ease. He cites the 1918 flu epidemic that killed over 40 million people. Imagine for a moment if terrorists released a biological weapon containing the influenza in several US cities. The casualties would be unprecedented–a 9/11 of exponential proportions. The United States could never recover from such an attack. How much longer can we really take the ideological viewpoint that all nations boarders are sanctified and should always remain respected? Is this notion of holiness worth the potential loss of hundreds of millions of people? Absolutely not. Pakistan has been an unstable government since the moment it broke away from India. Bangladesh seceded from Pakistan not long before Pakistan’s independence and the country is still devastated from Afghani refugees during the Cold War and Pervez Musharraf’s dictatorial reign. Many analysts believe that  the Pakistani militants received aid from not only Al-Qaeda, but former Pakistani military officials as well.  While it may not be President Zadari’s fault that these attacks occurred in Mumbai and attacks against NATO forces in cross-boarder raids in Afghanistan keep occurring, it is his responsibility to quell them. If he cannot stop his country from continuing to be a safe-haven for terrorists, Pakistan’s sovereignty is void.

The stakes are simply too high. A weapon of mass destruction striking a civilian target is simply unacceptable. It falls to the international community to end this potential threat to global security. Failure to act simply ensures a failure to protect lives. I don’t suggest an invasion of ground troops to Pakistan in it’s northwest provinces or Kashmir region, but what I do approve of is the use of highly advanced technology such as the predator program to locate and eliminate terrorist combatants with high precision. If we do not intervene and not only eliminate terrorist cells, but also support the Zadari presidency, it is more than feasible that a rogue militant group with Pakistani army support could stage a coup–and gain control of the 6th largest nuclear power. While ground troops in Pakistan might eventually be necessary to prevent future exponential 9/11′s from occurring if air attacks are unsuccessful, it should be a last resort. Finesse is paramount. Heavy bombing and incursions by international forces through ground troops will only increase the number of terrorists and give new wind to their cause as civilian casualties would ensue. The first step for the international community should be sound intelligence. No cross border predator attacks should be permitted without solid evidence that said attack will significantly cripple Al-Qaeda forces. Such attacks could have minimal progress so it might behoove the international community to involve the UN and draft a resolution.  If analysts determine that we are not safer and less likely to be struck by a WMD out of Pakistan after a year,  a more significant force will be necessary–one that could involve ground intervention in western provinces and the Kashmir region.

The cost of preserving democracy globally is sometimes worth the expense of sovereignty. While the decision to use military force is certainly not an easy one, it is necessary. An unstable nuclear power is a threat to global security. If NATO and the west don’t take the reigns in solving the problem, expect India to–as they would likely be the first target of Pakistani militants with a nuclear weapon. India’s response, would be far less finessed than a NATO one.

For the past twenty years, the Middle East has been the face of American opposition. Just as the Soviet Union was the poster boy of anti American aggression for most of the 20^th century, the Middle East has been tied to all things anti-American since the Persian Gulf War. However, with the Mumbai terrorist attacks and political unrest in Thailand, the War on Terror may very well shift out of the Gulf region and further into Eastern Asia.

The situation could be viewed as ironic. Just as America shows some signs of learning how to deal with terrorist insurgents on the streets of Baghdad, the troubles seem to be moving elsewhere. As the War in Iraq begins its final stages and America begins to adopt a new global strategy, the global playing field of terrorism and conflict seems poised to expand.

The attacks in Mumbai are without precedent. For the past decade, terrorist attacks have either been large scale coordinated attacks like 9/11 or the London bombings, or they have been single suicide bombings like the ones frequently seen in Israel. Mumbai straddles the line between the two types of attacks. Unlike 9/11, the London bombings, or the Madrid bombings, the attacks cannot be concentrated into a single image or purpose; they were widespread and targeted a number of locations.  The Mumbai attacks are more likely to resemble smaller scale terrorist attacks. However, while these small scale attacks consist of one bombing or one shooting, the Mumbai attacks were large scale, finely tuned, and were capable of wrecking havoc on the world’s largest developing city.

The world has never seen an attack like this and it does not yet know how to deal with it. Acts of violence like this are able to fly under the radar, as they do not require large purchases, reservations, or lots of people.  As the world shifts away from Middle Eastern terrorist warfare, America and its allies will have to draft new strategies in response to these new wave attacks.

Jon Goldsmith 

Today, the Jewish Orthodox Center run by the Chabad Lubavitch group in Mumbai was stormed by Indian Security forces. Five bodies of hostages were recovered at the scene. It is with great sorrow I write this. One can only be reminded of the Munich Massacre when an atrocity such as this is committed against Jews. Israeli-Jews were not the only targets, however, two americans have been found amongst the dead of another twenty hostage bodies. One thing is clear though–these guys were very well trained and well equipped for a long siege. According to an unnamed member of India’s elite Marine Commando Unit, “It’s obvious they were trained somewhere … Not everyone can handle the AK series of weapons or throw grenades like that,” adding that they were “very determined and remorseless.” 

The United States has sent a team of detectives to India to investigate the situation. Many are wondering what will happen next though. Could Israel potentially set up assassin teams the way they did after the Munich Massacre to kill the people responsible? Will the US step up cross boarder incursions into Pakistan to include the Kashmir region? Time will only tell. 

I wouldn’t expect a major US or western response to this because it is India’s responsibility to punish those responsible for attacks on its own citizens in its own country. Let’s not forget that of the 150+ dead, only 22 foreigners were amongst them. This attack was aimed at Indian organizations as a primary target and at westerns as a secondary one. India and Pakistan need to collectively work together to quell developing terrorism in the Kashmir territory. This reminds us, however, that terrorism is a global fight–not just one aimed at Britain, Israel, and the United States. I’m not calling for a massive worldwide pledge to end terrorism once and for all right now because it simply isn’t feasible. The crumbling economies of many nations will mute any initiative to pledge military or economic aid in the fight. Eventually that day must come when moderate nations band together against terrorism, but today simply isn’t that day. All I’m saying is this issue affects all countries now–especially if this attack indicates an upcoming trend of attack western tourists in foreign countries. 

Gabriel Rom

On Wednesday, a group of heavily armed assailants carried out a series of coordinated strikes in Mumbai—killing at least 80, wounding hundreds more, and claiming an indeterminate number of hostages. A group calling themselves the Deccan Mujahideen claimed responsibility for the mayhem, but their identity could not be immediately confirmed, and many terrorism specialists said they were unfamiliar with the name.

India has been long been mentioned in the same breath as other emerging economic superpowers such as China and Brazil…that all changed yesterday. It is speculated that over twenty well armed, highly trained guerrillas entered the city of Mumbai via waterway. Yes India is no stranger to terrorism, but an attack of this scale is simply unprecedented. This attack signifies the new brazen lengths terrorists within are willing to go to further their message.

What this message is, what grander ideologies it represents, and who or what is behind these attacks are all questions that are going to be addressed in the coming days, weeks, and years. The answers will be complex, but after the events of the past 24 hours, already some clues and patterns have begun to crystallize.

1) While many experts have noted the fact that the terrorists singled out British and American foreigners in the hotels that were attacked, one should note that both hotels that are currently under siege, The Taj Mahal and the Oberoid, are both Indian run hotels. The Marriott, Four Seasons, and Hyatt all have locations in Mumbai, and are all foreign owned…yet they were not attacked. Take this with a grain of salt, but it seems as if the terrorists’ primary goal was to strike the Indian economic and political infrastructure, and attempting to take down a few Westerners while doing it.

2) The brazen run and gun attack style of the terrorists was not indicative of any Al-Qaeda link. Rather, as Fareed Zakaria says:

This seems more like a Kashmiri, Lashkar kind of thing. They have the organization, they have the recruits, they have a cause they care about.

3) Watch Pakistan’s reaction to the incident. Recently some Pakistani intelligence officers have been accused of taking part in prior attacks within India.

Ultimately, these attacks were not aimed at Westerners, but at Indians. As the global economic downturn continues to steep to new lows, investment in India will surely be stemmed, maybe even completely ceased, after these attacks. India will reel, politically, and economically, from these attacks – and it is this author’s opinion, that tumult in India, not the world, was the attackers primary goal.