Failure to Act Ensures Failure to protect life–where security trumps sovereignty

With more and more evidence pointing to Pakistani militant groups being responsible for last weeks Mumbai Massacre, many, including myself, are beginning to wonder if international rights of sovereignty can be ignored for the sake of global security. Bob Graham, former chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee and senior intelligence advisor to Barack Obama, came out with a report as part of a government panel’s investigation on the likelihood of a weapon of mass destruction reaching American soil. What they found was startling. “it was our conclusion based on 250 interviews with academics, scientists, and military and political  intelligence  officials, that it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in some place in the world prior to the end of the year 2013. We also found that it was more likely that that weapon would be biological than nuclear. We also found that our margin of safety has been diminishing…there have been changes in the environment in which we have been operating particularly as it relates to biological weapons which have become more accessible to potential terrorists.” Graham goes on to say in an interview with Newsweek Magazine that the WMD will most likely come out of Pakistan.

Research by Graham and others has shown that potentially catastrophic biological weapons could become available to terrorists with ease. He cites the 1918 flu epidemic that killed over 40 million people. Imagine for a moment if terrorists released a biological weapon containing the influenza in several US cities. The casualties would be unprecedented–a 9/11 of exponential proportions. The United States could never recover from such an attack. How much longer can we really take the ideological viewpoint that all nations boarders are sanctified and should always remain respected? Is this notion of holiness worth the potential loss of hundreds of millions of people? Absolutely not. Pakistan has been an unstable government since the moment it broke away from India. Bangladesh seceded from Pakistan not long before Pakistan’s independence and the country is still devastated from Afghani refugees during the Cold War and Pervez Musharraf’s dictatorial reign. Many analysts believe that  the Pakistani militants received aid from not only Al-Qaeda, but former Pakistani military officials as well.  While it may not be President Zadari’s fault that these attacks occurred in Mumbai and attacks against NATO forces in cross-boarder raids in Afghanistan keep occurring, it is his responsibility to quell them. If he cannot stop his country from continuing to be a safe-haven for terrorists, Pakistan’s sovereignty is void.

The stakes are simply too high. A weapon of mass destruction striking a civilian target is simply unacceptable. It falls to the international community to end this potential threat to global security. Failure to act simply ensures a failure to protect lives. I don’t suggest an invasion of ground troops to Pakistan in it’s northwest provinces or Kashmir region, but what I do approve of is the use of highly advanced technology such as the predator program to locate and eliminate terrorist combatants with high precision. If we do not intervene and not only eliminate terrorist cells, but also support the Zadari presidency, it is more than feasible that a rogue militant group with Pakistani army support could stage a coup–and gain control of the 6th largest nuclear power. While ground troops in Pakistan might eventually be necessary to prevent future exponential 9/11′s from occurring if air attacks are unsuccessful, it should be a last resort. Finesse is paramount. Heavy bombing and incursions by international forces through ground troops will only increase the number of terrorists and give new wind to their cause as civilian casualties would ensue. The first step for the international community should be sound intelligence. No cross border predator attacks should be permitted without solid evidence that said attack will significantly cripple Al-Qaeda forces. Such attacks could have minimal progress so it might behoove the international community to involve the UN and draft a resolution.  If analysts determine that we are not safer and less likely to be struck by a WMD out of Pakistan after a year,  a more significant force will be necessary–one that could involve ground intervention in western provinces and the Kashmir region.

The cost of preserving democracy globally is sometimes worth the expense of sovereignty. While the decision to use military force is certainly not an easy one, it is necessary. An unstable nuclear power is a threat to global security. If NATO and the west don’t take the reigns in solving the problem, expect India to–as they would likely be the first target of Pakistani militants with a nuclear weapon. India’s response, would be far less finessed than a NATO one.

A Day Frozen in Time, A Nation Thrust Towards the Future

By Max Godnick

I go to a school with six hundred well to do New Yorkers. My peers, and most members of my generation, have been long stricken with a case of apathy.  I never thought that in my adolescence, I would see my generation brought together over politics and history.

Yesterday changed all that. Throughout the day, I could tell I was living out the pages of my grandchildren’s textbooks. Something was different. There was an undeniable energy in the air. People knew something was coming. While they may not have watched the primaries, followed the veepstakes, or seen the debates, they realized that their country was on the brink of a new era; a true turning point in a sometimes negative and drawn out history.

At eleven o’clock, time stopped. Horns honked, pots and pans were smashed, and fireworks were set off. A catharsis was about to begin. I looked outside my window and saw a scene straight out of a movie. People were cheering, strangers were jumping amongst one another, they were chanting, they were elated; they recognized that the world was changing, and they would be at the center of it.

Granted, I live in New York City in a largely African American neighborhood. I bet the scene in rural Idaho looked a lot different. But it did not matter. The country came together for the first time since September 11th,  yet this time, it was in joy and elation rather than tragedy and despair.

Who knows whether Barack Obama will be a successful president. Many questions are still left to be answered. But the world will turn their heads towards America, and look to us in a positive light. Respect, dignity, and awe will grace the ground of the United States. Americans will become truly engaged in politics again. As Obama builds his candidacy, the nation will watch, rooting, or not rooting, for a new day in American politics and culture.

I do not think I will ever see a time like this one ever again in my lifetime. My generation, the “purple youth”, has engaged in its country and culture like I never expected it could. My city can finally unite, shedding racial barriers that have stood strong for hundreds of years, and my country can look towards the future and to a new path.

Politics really do not play such a large role in what happened yesterday and what will happen in the days and years to come. Sure, it is based around the political process, but it is more than that. It is a general consensus that “now” matters. Now is our chance and we must grasp it. Absorb the moment. This is a rare opportunity, that wont be felt again for many years to come.

Counties Counties Counties

Okay, so votes are beginning to trickle in. But lets remember, when it says 1% of precincts reporting…that means that about one district is reporting votes.

So lets look at some of these early states

Indiana: this is looking a lot closer than I had expected. While Mccain holds about a 4% lead now, Obama is running extremely competitive given that some of his strongest counties have not reported any votes yet. Lake County, which houses the African American stronghold of Gary, has not reported anything yet. Once Gary begins to come in, look for this to tighten up significantly.

Virginia: Mccainites, dont get excited. I know there is a 15% lead in Virginia right now, but the only counties that have reported are primarily in the southern region. Obama holds great strength in Northern and Eastern Virginia. Lots of money and attention were put in to Prince Edward county, keep an eye out for that.

We dont have much info on Ohio, but word is that Obama is leading.

The opposite is true for West Virginia, Mccain is leading.

Florida is not realistic right now. Obama holds a huge lead, but only about one county is in.

I’m still going to stick with my projections, but I am very intrigued by Indiana. Obama is over performing.

Be back soon.

Max

The democrats are back to their 1994 swagger and no one seems to realize how much power this party is going to gain. The democrats will likely pick up 60 senate seats and other large gains in the house. So, how much does this election matter? If a senator McCain is elected, don’t expect any legislation to be passed that is anything more than moderately liberal. If senator Obama is elected, expect some wide ranging policy changes probably to the effect of FDR’s New Deal. Regardless of who wins, one thing is clear: the Reagan era of conservatism is dead.

This country has had almost thirty years of no regulations or rules and look where it has gotten us–recession if not depression. Republicans believe that the government that governs least is usually the government that governs best. Mostly because when they are in power, that’s largely true. It’s time for a change and it will either come from a blue congress or completely blue government.

Perhaps the largest impact this race will have is the effects on the judicial system. Lets not forget the fact that the executive appoints judges throughout the nation–from the Supreme Court to Appellate Court. Voters, when you go out there, know you are voting for either conservatism, or liberalism. It’s time for a change. Conservatives of each generation gradually turn into the liberals of the generation that preceded them…so let me ask you this: should we procrastinate necessary reforms in the economy and energy for the next generation the way we did with slavery, women’s rights, and progressivism? Or should we do something about it today so my generation won’t have to pick up the slack for the truly pathetic job the baby boomers have done?

Please please please vote for Barack Obama. We beg of you and ask that you vote for those who cannot such as me. I should not have to pay off the debt of two wars and failures of Bush economic policies when I reach your age. I should not have to worry about my apartment next to the East River in New York being submerged because Washington refuses to admit that global warming is actually happening. I should be forced to watch the White House become a mockery once more. Haven’t we had enough of comedy in the White House? When was the last time in the last eight years that you honestly thought about the executive branch without either laughing or crying? We had Humpty Dumpty for the last eight years. Do we want to solve issues or do we want to put Barracuda Barbie in charge of our nuclear codes.

You decide. For once though, think about our future, and not your golden years.

Pennsylvania: The state has been polling firmly for Obama for the entire campaign. PA, however, has also been rated the most likely state for voter fraud to occur in. This is the pivotal state. If McCain wins and pulls an upset, he is on the road to victory; however, if Obama wins, he only has to win one of the other battleground states to clinch the election. The McCain campaign has been spending enormous amounts of money and time in this state. The McCain camp needs this state to win.

Virginia: Perhaps the most important battle ground state. MSNBC and Real clear politics have had this state in the “lean obama” category for the last few weeks. This weekend, however, Obama’s lead narrowed significantly. This state is going to be very close. I put Obama to win by around 3 points or so. The state has been turning blue for a while and this could be it’s formal inauguration.

New Hampshire: This state has been blue since 2004 and will most likely go Obama. It’s not especially significant for either side but could be a good indication of what’s to come after their polls close.

North Carolina:  This state has been solidly red since 1976 and I think it will stay that way. The polls are nearly a dead even heat. It is important to note that the remaining undecided’s will most likely vote for McCain. They are the borderline voters who are not as comfortable with Obama’s ethnicity. All in all I’m calling this for a pretty easy +15 for John McCain.

Ohio: Another very important battleground, but not nearly as important as it was in 2004. Obama has been up here recently but polls dipped significantly this weekend. This is going to be a squeaker. I don’t think this state will be called by the networks until much later on in the night, perhaps even in days to come.

Indiana: The state has been solidly red for more than the last 40 years. This state has been slightly leaning McCain the entire election and I think that’s where it’s going to end up. Fairly easy +11 for McCain.

Florida: Fiasco’s in Florida again? Could it happen? I think so. The state has been hotly contested this season. Obama has only pulled ahead there recently. I think Obama is going to carry this state by slim margins–that is of course, only if polls in african american communities and jewish communities don’t come back with negative vote totals (knock on wood).

Georgia: Obama has been creeping back here. Bob Barr has siphoned off some of the republican votes and Obama could be competitive here. The large african american community could give him a pretty strong boost; however, I don’t think he has a strong enough shot to carry this state.

Missouri: This state has been a pretty firm tie throughout the election. In recent days, McCain has been edging forward in the polls and I think he will most likely carry this state. +11 for McCain.

Colorado: This state has been leaning blue throughout most of the election. I would be very surprised if McCain pulled an upset here. Having said that, the Obama camp is feeling somewhat nervous over the fact that early voting turnout has been pretty confined and hasn’t consisted of many people below the age of 35. Keep an eye out for this one.

New Mexico: This state has also been pretty blue throughout the entire election. The strong latino vote and recent migration of Jews could aid Obama win this state on his journey to the White House.

Nevada: This state has been inching more and more towards Obama. I’d be pretty surprised if he doesn’t carry it.

Arizona: Could McCain lose his home state? Yes, but it’s not very likely. McCain has been up by a few points going into the last weeks and I don’t think Obama has the support to truly carry that state.

Pro’s for Obama: Unfavorable Bush ratings, Strong Economy message, strong support from minorities, huge war chest of funds, unparalleled ground game (in Ohio, he has more offices than there are precincts), McCain will have to win either every toss-up state including Colorado or he would have to take Pennsylvania in a huge upset–something that is not very likely.

Pro’s for McCain: Experience, possible Bradley effect, legendary get-out the vote campaign,

All in all, I’m predicting 338 Obama to 200 McCain. I think Obama will take the popular by about 4 points.

Boy did I choose a good year to become a political junkie. I pity the budding pundits who came before me, those who were in my position in 2004, 1996, or 1976. Sure all elections are influential, but this one, this was something else. First black credible candidate, first woman credible candidate, a primary season that treated each state like it was the deciding factor, a come from behind primary victory for Mccain, a heated veepstakes ending with one of the most talked about vice presidential picks…ever?

And now, after 100 primaries (plus guam, puerto rico, and american samoa), 2 conventions, and 3 debates, I am forced to make my projections of what will happen tomorrow night.

I am by no means in the minority by believing Barack Obama will win. His ground game is too good, his fundraising too high, and his lead in the crucial swing state polls are too great, for John Mccain to squeak out the 270 needed electoral votes.

According to RealClearPolitics, with one day left to go, the swing states are

MT, AZ, ND, MO, CO, FL, GA, NC, VA, IN, NH, NV, and OH

Obama leads by five points or more in CO, VA, and NV He holds smaller leads in FL and OH.

The good news for Obama is that if he can hold on to PA, he only needs to win one of those states to win.

So how big will his win be?

(Click on State or Table Below for Latest Polls and to Change Status)

Will Obama Close?

Obama’s up, but supporters are less than
confident.

It’s on the mind of every true blue supporter; will another one get stolen by either fraud or the bradley effect. Democrats remember that the exit polls predicted democratic winners in both 2000, and 2004. And while it isn’t largely spoken of, Ohio in 2004 was stolen just the same way Florida was on 2000. Obama is facing a number of hurdles in his way before he can be president. For those of you who don’t know, the Bradley effect refers to a politician who was the long time mayor of Los Angeles, ran for governor of California, and lost in a huge upset. In the final week, polls showed him up as much as 7 percent, however, a smaller number of voters, especially white voters voted for Bradley than polls indicated.

While much has happened in terms of tolerance since 1982, this specter has been looming over the heads of every democrat. According to some sources such as the New York Times, many think the Bradley effect could swipe as much as 6 percentage points away. If this happens, it will be truly heartbreaking. If Obama is up by any amount higher than 5 points and the  election is stolen by either racism or fraud, americans will lose all faith in democracy. If you thought 2000 made people lose faith in democracy, what will this do? We’ve had eight years of republicans, a failing economy, and no hope. I don’t think anyone can argue that if Obama were white, this election wouldn’t even be close.

Let’s not also forget that Obama is not a fantastic closer, he was pounding Hilary into a pulp and still couldn’t completely seal the deal until the end of the primaries. And lets not forget that McCain is a fighter and has been in this very position time and again. He has been written out countlesstimes only to come back and win. And while it might be somewhat preposterous to say, I think most Obama supporters are thanking the banking gods for delivering them the edge in this election.

Jon Goldsmith 

Both candidates proved one thing. They are both ready and capable of leading the nation. The debate was close, well argued on all sides. However, Obama could have done a much better job. He could have delivered a knock-out blow. Obama did not tie McCain to Bush enough and did not outwardly blame the current economic recession on the Bush-McCain deregulation policies.

One thing Obama needed to do, and did, was end rumors that he would raise taxes for nearly all Americans when in fact he will lower them by 95%. Obama struck hard, saying, “the fundamentals of the economy have to be measured by whether or not the middle class is getting a fair shake…and when you look at [McCain's] tax policies you are neglecting people who are really struggling right now [and] it’s a continuation of the last eight years.” McCain definitely grew stronger as the topics of the debate shifted from the economy to foreign affairs. Foreign policy should have been a clean sweep for McCain, but Obama remained strong and tough and proved that he was not weak. McCain was perhaps strongest when he said, “I don’t think I need any on-the-job training…I am ready to go at it right now.” Overall no candidate got a knockout blow but Obama probably finished with a slight edge. 

More amusing, however, was the propaganda on both sides. Keith Olbermann made the assertion that McCain admitted the government tortured people, and dramatically lost the debate. And of course, Fox News claimed Obama was out of touch and that McCain had dominated.

Jon Goldsmith 

In response the growing  tension between the US and pakistan over terrorism in Pakistan’s northwest province and the interview with President Zardari on MSNBC.

It’s difficult to say. Do we have the right to cross Pakistan’s sovereign borders? The question is more complicated than most will admit. Today, Pakistani troops opened fire on two US helicopters that crossed the border into Pakistan. I do not think we have the right to invade Pakistan, however, this is where the new battle front is; can we really just sit here and not strike a location where known terrorists are harbored?

 I think we need to put more pressure on Pakistan but cutting off military aid or putting more strings on it. Senator Obama proposed putting more strings and requirements military aid shipments to Pakistan. Pakistan does, however, have every right to shoot at US troops crossing their border. Having said that, Pakistan must step up the pressure on cracking down on Al Qaeda. Pakistan is going to stop joking around once they realize that US military aid leaves them not just unprepared to protect against militants in the west, but India as well. 

I’m rather unimpressed with Zardari’s call that democracy will conquer terrorism. Bombs conquer terrorism. Either he needs to give us approval to carry out air-strikes or carry them out himself. Pakistan right now, doesn’t care about the militants, they care about war with India. By requiring Pakistan to attack militants in the west at the threat of a deduction in military aid, we can solve the problem without direct US military action.