A Day Frozen in Time, A Nation Thrust Towards the Future

By Max Godnick

I go to a school with six hundred well to do New Yorkers. My peers, and most members of my generation, have been long stricken with a case of apathy.  I never thought that in my adolescence, I would see my generation brought together over politics and history.

Yesterday changed all that. Throughout the day, I could tell I was living out the pages of my grandchildren’s textbooks. Something was different. There was an undeniable energy in the air. People knew something was coming. While they may not have watched the primaries, followed the veepstakes, or seen the debates, they realized that their country was on the brink of a new era; a true turning point in a sometimes negative and drawn out history.

At eleven o’clock, time stopped. Horns honked, pots and pans were smashed, and fireworks were set off. A catharsis was about to begin. I looked outside my window and saw a scene straight out of a movie. People were cheering, strangers were jumping amongst one another, they were chanting, they were elated; they recognized that the world was changing, and they would be at the center of it.

Granted, I live in New York City in a largely African American neighborhood. I bet the scene in rural Idaho looked a lot different. But it did not matter. The country came together for the first time since September 11th,  yet this time, it was in joy and elation rather than tragedy and despair.

Who knows whether Barack Obama will be a successful president. Many questions are still left to be answered. But the world will turn their heads towards America, and look to us in a positive light. Respect, dignity, and awe will grace the ground of the United States. Americans will become truly engaged in politics again. As Obama builds his candidacy, the nation will watch, rooting, or not rooting, for a new day in American politics and culture.

I do not think I will ever see a time like this one ever again in my lifetime. My generation, the “purple youth”, has engaged in its country and culture like I never expected it could. My city can finally unite, shedding racial barriers that have stood strong for hundreds of years, and my country can look towards the future and to a new path.

Politics really do not play such a large role in what happened yesterday and what will happen in the days and years to come. Sure, it is based around the political process, but it is more than that. It is a general consensus that “now” matters. Now is our chance and we must grasp it. Absorb the moment. This is a rare opportunity, that wont be felt again for many years to come.

Counties Counties Counties

Okay, so votes are beginning to trickle in. But lets remember, when it says 1% of precincts reporting…that means that about one district is reporting votes.

So lets look at some of these early states

Indiana: this is looking a lot closer than I had expected. While Mccain holds about a 4% lead now, Obama is running extremely competitive given that some of his strongest counties have not reported any votes yet. Lake County, which houses the African American stronghold of Gary, has not reported anything yet. Once Gary begins to come in, look for this to tighten up significantly.

Virginia: Mccainites, dont get excited. I know there is a 15% lead in Virginia right now, but the only counties that have reported are primarily in the southern region. Obama holds great strength in Northern and Eastern Virginia. Lots of money and attention were put in to Prince Edward county, keep an eye out for that.

We dont have much info on Ohio, but word is that Obama is leading.

The opposite is true for West Virginia, Mccain is leading.

Florida is not realistic right now. Obama holds a huge lead, but only about one county is in.

I’m still going to stick with my projections, but I am very intrigued by Indiana. Obama is over performing.

Be back soon.

Max

The democrats are back to their 1994 swagger and no one seems to realize how much power this party is going to gain. The democrats will likely pick up 60 senate seats and other large gains in the house. So, how much does this election matter? If a senator McCain is elected, don’t expect any legislation to be passed that is anything more than moderately liberal. If senator Obama is elected, expect some wide ranging policy changes probably to the effect of FDR’s New Deal. Regardless of who wins, one thing is clear: the Reagan era of conservatism is dead.

This country has had almost thirty years of no regulations or rules and look where it has gotten us–recession if not depression. Republicans believe that the government that governs least is usually the government that governs best. Mostly because when they are in power, that’s largely true. It’s time for a change and it will either come from a blue congress or completely blue government.

Perhaps the largest impact this race will have is the effects on the judicial system. Lets not forget the fact that the executive appoints judges throughout the nation–from the Supreme Court to Appellate Court. Voters, when you go out there, know you are voting for either conservatism, or liberalism. It’s time for a change. Conservatives of each generation gradually turn into the liberals of the generation that preceded them…so let me ask you this: should we procrastinate necessary reforms in the economy and energy for the next generation the way we did with slavery, women’s rights, and progressivism? Or should we do something about it today so my generation won’t have to pick up the slack for the truly pathetic job the baby boomers have done?

Please please please vote for Barack Obama. We beg of you and ask that you vote for those who cannot such as me. I should not have to pay off the debt of two wars and failures of Bush economic policies when I reach your age. I should not have to worry about my apartment next to the East River in New York being submerged because Washington refuses to admit that global warming is actually happening. I should be forced to watch the White House become a mockery once more. Haven’t we had enough of comedy in the White House? When was the last time in the last eight years that you honestly thought about the executive branch without either laughing or crying? We had Humpty Dumpty for the last eight years. Do we want to solve issues or do we want to put Barracuda Barbie in charge of our nuclear codes.

You decide. For once though, think about our future, and not your golden years.

Pennsylvania: The state has been polling firmly for Obama for the entire campaign. PA, however, has also been rated the most likely state for voter fraud to occur in. This is the pivotal state. If McCain wins and pulls an upset, he is on the road to victory; however, if Obama wins, he only has to win one of the other battleground states to clinch the election. The McCain campaign has been spending enormous amounts of money and time in this state. The McCain camp needs this state to win.

Virginia: Perhaps the most important battle ground state. MSNBC and Real clear politics have had this state in the “lean obama” category for the last few weeks. This weekend, however, Obama’s lead narrowed significantly. This state is going to be very close. I put Obama to win by around 3 points or so. The state has been turning blue for a while and this could be it’s formal inauguration.

New Hampshire: This state has been blue since 2004 and will most likely go Obama. It’s not especially significant for either side but could be a good indication of what’s to come after their polls close.

North Carolina:  This state has been solidly red since 1976 and I think it will stay that way. The polls are nearly a dead even heat. It is important to note that the remaining undecided’s will most likely vote for McCain. They are the borderline voters who are not as comfortable with Obama’s ethnicity. All in all I’m calling this for a pretty easy +15 for John McCain.

Ohio: Another very important battleground, but not nearly as important as it was in 2004. Obama has been up here recently but polls dipped significantly this weekend. This is going to be a squeaker. I don’t think this state will be called by the networks until much later on in the night, perhaps even in days to come.

Indiana: The state has been solidly red for more than the last 40 years. This state has been slightly leaning McCain the entire election and I think that’s where it’s going to end up. Fairly easy +11 for McCain.

Florida: Fiasco’s in Florida again? Could it happen? I think so. The state has been hotly contested this season. Obama has only pulled ahead there recently. I think Obama is going to carry this state by slim margins–that is of course, only if polls in african american communities and jewish communities don’t come back with negative vote totals (knock on wood).

Georgia: Obama has been creeping back here. Bob Barr has siphoned off some of the republican votes and Obama could be competitive here. The large african american community could give him a pretty strong boost; however, I don’t think he has a strong enough shot to carry this state.

Missouri: This state has been a pretty firm tie throughout the election. In recent days, McCain has been edging forward in the polls and I think he will most likely carry this state. +11 for McCain.

Colorado: This state has been leaning blue throughout most of the election. I would be very surprised if McCain pulled an upset here. Having said that, the Obama camp is feeling somewhat nervous over the fact that early voting turnout has been pretty confined and hasn’t consisted of many people below the age of 35. Keep an eye out for this one.

New Mexico: This state has also been pretty blue throughout the entire election. The strong latino vote and recent migration of Jews could aid Obama win this state on his journey to the White House.

Nevada: This state has been inching more and more towards Obama. I’d be pretty surprised if he doesn’t carry it.

Arizona: Could McCain lose his home state? Yes, but it’s not very likely. McCain has been up by a few points going into the last weeks and I don’t think Obama has the support to truly carry that state.

Pro’s for Obama: Unfavorable Bush ratings, Strong Economy message, strong support from minorities, huge war chest of funds, unparalleled ground game (in Ohio, he has more offices than there are precincts), McCain will have to win either every toss-up state including Colorado or he would have to take Pennsylvania in a huge upset–something that is not very likely.

Pro’s for McCain: Experience, possible Bradley effect, legendary get-out the vote campaign,

All in all, I’m predicting 338 Obama to 200 McCain. I think Obama will take the popular by about 4 points.

Will Obama Close?

Obama’s up, but supporters are less than
confident.

It’s on the mind of every true blue supporter; will another one get stolen by either fraud or the bradley effect. Democrats remember that the exit polls predicted democratic winners in both 2000, and 2004. And while it isn’t largely spoken of, Ohio in 2004 was stolen just the same way Florida was on 2000. Obama is facing a number of hurdles in his way before he can be president. For those of you who don’t know, the Bradley effect refers to a politician who was the long time mayor of Los Angeles, ran for governor of California, and lost in a huge upset. In the final week, polls showed him up as much as 7 percent, however, a smaller number of voters, especially white voters voted for Bradley than polls indicated.

While much has happened in terms of tolerance since 1982, this specter has been looming over the heads of every democrat. According to some sources such as the New York Times, many think the Bradley effect could swipe as much as 6 percentage points away. If this happens, it will be truly heartbreaking. If Obama is up by any amount higher than 5 points and the  election is stolen by either racism or fraud, americans will lose all faith in democracy. If you thought 2000 made people lose faith in democracy, what will this do? We’ve had eight years of republicans, a failing economy, and no hope. I don’t think anyone can argue that if Obama were white, this election wouldn’t even be close.

Let’s not also forget that Obama is not a fantastic closer, he was pounding Hilary into a pulp and still couldn’t completely seal the deal until the end of the primaries. And lets not forget that McCain is a fighter and has been in this very position time and again. He has been written out countlesstimes only to come back and win. And while it might be somewhat preposterous to say, I think most Obama supporters are thanking the banking gods for delivering them the edge in this election.

Who cares about change…what about the laughter?

Max Godnick 

A silly Bush impression. A shocking gaffe in a Bush speech. Jokes about Mccain’s age. Jokes about Alaska. Turn on any late night talk show and I guarantee you will see one, if not more of these. The comedy world has made a virtual industry of Bush jokes over the last eight years. Books have been made featuring his funniest one liners. A plethora of t-shirts designed featuring Bush in an embarrassing situation. Television writers have made an art out of political jokes featuring Bush and other members of the GOP.

But now, picture January 20^th 2009. Barack Obama has just been sworn in as the 44^th President of the United States of America. The media is fawning over the newly elected leader; there is a lack of cynicism that has not been seen since Watergate. But where is the laughter? 

Late night TV has already had trouble hitting the right tone when making “Obama jokes”. Any joke made about the Senator usually involves the sensational aspects of his campaign and his “messiah-esque” qualities. But surely these jokes cannot keep the entire industry afloat for the next four or eight years. David Letterman will most certainly see a challenge in finding notable gaffes from Obama speeches to include in his now famous “Great Moments in Presidential Speeches” feature, one that has been running for the past five years. Impressionists will see great difficulty in padding their routines with an Obama impression. Even SNL, a virtual impressions factory, has had trouble finding someone to impersonate Obama.

Television writers will have trouble writing jokes about the first African American president. They are faced with a number of sensitive issues regarding race, that if taken the wrong way, could ignite a firestorm. Writers will have to find a way to poke fun at Obama about qualities we may not even know about yet. 

Granted, Bush jokes will still be made. It is still comically acceptable to make Clinton jokes regarding the Lewinsky scandal and the former Presidents other romantic endeavors. But still, people don’t tune into their favorite talk shows to see eight year old jokes. They want cutting commentary on the issues of the day. I have faith that the writers will find their groove in following the Obama presidency. But it will be a challenge. Despite all the criticism about media bias during this campaign, talk show writers might be secretly pulling for a Mccain victory. Old jokes and Alaska jokes never grow stale.  

McCain’s Tax Revolution

Brian Rom

Since the mainstream media (MSM) fell out of love with J Mac when their golden boy was first bathed in celestial light, there has been a deafening silence on two of Mac’s revolutionary ideas. The first, the aptly named* League of Democracies is a proposal to replace the corrupt, sclerotic and freedom-hating U.N. with an organization whose members actually practice what the U.N. charter preaches. Rather than attempt to summarize this proposal, a full description of the plan is available on the McCain website, and by Googling League of Democracies. The other revolutionary idea is the introduction of an optional flat tax system for the U.S., similarly designed to replace the corrupt, sclerotic, freedom-hating United States Tax Code.

From a purely political standpoint, Mac hasn’t always been a hero of conservatives when it comes to taxes. But by adopting proposals from the anti-tax voices in his party as his own, he has begun to silence erstwhile critics on the right.

The essence of the proposal, first announced by McCain in April 2008 is to let taxpayers choose between the current tax system and an optional flat-tax with a maximum top rate of 25%. While at first blush it appears that based on comparing top income tax rates under current law — 39.6% by 2011 — with the 25% top rate under the flat-tax plan, the wealthy would benefit most from the flat-tax system, the overall benefits to the system would far outweigh any possible unfairness of disproportionately reducing the taxes of the wealthy. Firstly, small percentage of “wealthy” Americans currently pay by far the largest proportion of taxes, so notwithstanding the populist anti-flat tax rhetoric, these individuals would simply be getting back a portion of their own money. But more importantly, the non-wealthy who opted for the flat-tax option would also pay less than they are now.

In the most detailed analysis to date of the candidates’ tax proposals, the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center found that McCain proposals would cut taxes for the wealthiest 1% in 2012 by an average of $126,902, or 6.4%, compared to current law. That compares to an average of 3.7% tax cut across all income levels, according to this Tax Policy Center analysis.

So it would be a win-win situation with overall taxes increasing due to greater productivity and compliance coupled with a reduction in the billions spent on accountants and tax attorneys.

Along with this cutting of the Tax Code Gordian knot, McCain’s tax proposals, McCain would also cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 25% and set a 15% estate tax rate while exempting assets under $5 million per person.

So look for the Obama campaign and their MSM allies to do a lot of populist breast-beating and teeth-gnashing at the injustice of it all. Just bear in mind that injustice that returns hard-earned dollars to the citizens who earned them in the first place is, for once, change that we can believe in.

*I particularly like McCain’s selection of this name since while echoing back to the U.N.’s predecessor, The League of Nations, it discards the canard of a world populated by United Nations. Let nations pursue their own goals and agendas, so long as they all agree to play by the same set of internationally recognized rules, and obligation that, by definition, functioning democracies currently are committed to doing.