The states looking good for Obama:

Florida: 52 percent to 44 percent
Iowa: 52 percent to 48 percent
Missouri: 52 percent to 48 percent
North Carolina: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Hampshire: 57 percent to 43 percent
Nevada: 55 percent to 45 percent
Pennsylvania: 57 percent to 42 percent
Ohio: 54 percent to 45 percent
Wisconsin: 58 percent to 42 percent
Indiana: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Mexico: 56 percent to 43 percent
Minnesota: 60 percent to 39 percent

The States looking good for McCain

Georgia: 51 percent to 47 percent
West Virginia: 45 percent to 55 percent

One major problem with exit polls is that it is widely accepted that young adults are much more likely to do exit surveys after they vote than seniors do, this gives the polls a highly obama biased tint. Make of them what you wish.

Gallup/USA Poll Puts McCain Ahead for First Time Since May

Gabriel Rom

In a poll released Sunday by USA Today and Gallup, John McCain has moved up +10 percentage points among “likely voters” (compared to a USA poll conducted last month), and now has a small four point lead over Democrat Barack Obama.

The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

This is the first poll showing McCain with a lead over Obama since a May 1-3 Gallup/USA Today survey showed him with a slim 1 point advantage.

Additionally, two other polls released today by Rasmussen and Gallup have Obama leading McCain by smaller margins (-2 and -1 respectively). Real Clear Politics which combines all polls and releases an aggregate “scorecard” of where each candidate stands has Obama leading McCain by 3.2%, the closest the two have been since June 2nd

More analysis on Barack Obama’s overseas trip, his speech in Berlin, and the affects they have had on  voters to come soon