Hillary For secretary of state? 

This article is probably a little bit overdue for you TPY readers; however, Wednesday President-elect Barack Obama met with Senator Hillary Clinton at his Chicago office to discuss the secretary of state job (according to advisers from both groups). If there’s one thing we know about Hillary, it’s that if she did not want the job she would have squashed any rumors the moment they surfaced to prevent any consensus that she had been turned down for a job she actually wanted. What are the pros and cons for both sides? Well, for Obama, he will successful curtail a rival and ensure that she cannot speak out against his administration. He would also appease anxious Hillary voters who voted for Obama because of party affiliation alone or even ones who voted for McCain out of bitterness. Another “pro” is that he could show the world that he is committed to diplomacy and has a political agenda for women as well. Most importantly, he could really unite the party even further. The only real cons for Obama are the political baggage Clinton brings to his “government of change” with 35 years in the senate and a potential power struggle between her and Vice President-elect Joe Biden for who controls the foreign policy stage. Obama faces possibly an even bigger con if all this talk about Hillary as secretary of state leads to nothing and old wounds from Clinton voters could be reopened. 

The pros for Clinton are quite obvious. She would gain one of the most prestigious jobs in the country and leave a senate in which she has only minimal influence.  Clinton has approached both Harry Reid and Ed Kennedy about her being potential chairwoman for health care committee but both pretty much shot-down the idea. The only major cons for the entire Clinton family is that Bill’s international outreach program would have to be inspected and curbed in many aspects to prevent any conflict of interest. The family would also have to disclose much more about Bill Clinton’s earnings, especially from outside sources. 

In this writers own personal opinion, I think it’s a wise choice. Clinton is an internationally respected diplomat and her name alone carries quite a bit of weight. She is definitely qualified for the job and has many of the same values Obama does. It seems to me that Obama is trying to mirror a Lincoln presidency in the sense of bringing former rivals to the cabinet tables. Lincoln invited all of his former foes to serve his presidency and it seems that Obama is doing the same. Rumor has it that even John McCain could be asked for a post or support for a specific agenda. I think that turning Hillary from a potential adversary into a team member is a great boost and pick up for his administration. 

Pennsylvania: The state has been polling firmly for Obama for the entire campaign. PA, however, has also been rated the most likely state for voter fraud to occur in. This is the pivotal state. If McCain wins and pulls an upset, he is on the road to victory; however, if Obama wins, he only has to win one of the other battleground states to clinch the election. The McCain campaign has been spending enormous amounts of money and time in this state. The McCain camp needs this state to win.

Virginia: Perhaps the most important battle ground state. MSNBC and Real clear politics have had this state in the “lean obama” category for the last few weeks. This weekend, however, Obama’s lead narrowed significantly. This state is going to be very close. I put Obama to win by around 3 points or so. The state has been turning blue for a while and this could be it’s formal inauguration.

New Hampshire: This state has been blue since 2004 and will most likely go Obama. It’s not especially significant for either side but could be a good indication of what’s to come after their polls close.

North Carolina:  This state has been solidly red since 1976 and I think it will stay that way. The polls are nearly a dead even heat. It is important to note that the remaining undecided’s will most likely vote for McCain. They are the borderline voters who are not as comfortable with Obama’s ethnicity. All in all I’m calling this for a pretty easy +15 for John McCain.

Ohio: Another very important battleground, but not nearly as important as it was in 2004. Obama has been up here recently but polls dipped significantly this weekend. This is going to be a squeaker. I don’t think this state will be called by the networks until much later on in the night, perhaps even in days to come.

Indiana: The state has been solidly red for more than the last 40 years. This state has been slightly leaning McCain the entire election and I think that’s where it’s going to end up. Fairly easy +11 for McCain.

Florida: Fiasco’s in Florida again? Could it happen? I think so. The state has been hotly contested this season. Obama has only pulled ahead there recently. I think Obama is going to carry this state by slim margins–that is of course, only if polls in african american communities and jewish communities don’t come back with negative vote totals (knock on wood).

Georgia: Obama has been creeping back here. Bob Barr has siphoned off some of the republican votes and Obama could be competitive here. The large african american community could give him a pretty strong boost; however, I don’t think he has a strong enough shot to carry this state.

Missouri: This state has been a pretty firm tie throughout the election. In recent days, McCain has been edging forward in the polls and I think he will most likely carry this state. +11 for McCain.

Colorado: This state has been leaning blue throughout most of the election. I would be very surprised if McCain pulled an upset here. Having said that, the Obama camp is feeling somewhat nervous over the fact that early voting turnout has been pretty confined and hasn’t consisted of many people below the age of 35. Keep an eye out for this one.

New Mexico: This state has also been pretty blue throughout the entire election. The strong latino vote and recent migration of Jews could aid Obama win this state on his journey to the White House.

Nevada: This state has been inching more and more towards Obama. I’d be pretty surprised if he doesn’t carry it.

Arizona: Could McCain lose his home state? Yes, but it’s not very likely. McCain has been up by a few points going into the last weeks and I don’t think Obama has the support to truly carry that state.

Pro’s for Obama: Unfavorable Bush ratings, Strong Economy message, strong support from minorities, huge war chest of funds, unparalleled ground game (in Ohio, he has more offices than there are precincts), McCain will have to win either every toss-up state including Colorado or he would have to take Pennsylvania in a huge upset–something that is not very likely.

Pro’s for McCain: Experience, possible Bradley effect, legendary get-out the vote campaign,

All in all, I’m predicting 338 Obama to 200 McCain. I think Obama will take the popular by about 4 points.

Boy did I choose a good year to become a political junkie. I pity the budding pundits who came before me, those who were in my position in 2004, 1996, or 1976. Sure all elections are influential, but this one, this was something else. First black credible candidate, first woman credible candidate, a primary season that treated each state like it was the deciding factor, a come from behind primary victory for Mccain, a heated veepstakes ending with one of the most talked about vice presidential picks…ever?

And now, after 100 primaries (plus guam, puerto rico, and american samoa), 2 conventions, and 3 debates, I am forced to make my projections of what will happen tomorrow night.

I am by no means in the minority by believing Barack Obama will win. His ground game is too good, his fundraising too high, and his lead in the crucial swing state polls are too great, for John Mccain to squeak out the 270 needed electoral votes.

According to RealClearPolitics, with one day left to go, the swing states are

MT, AZ, ND, MO, CO, FL, GA, NC, VA, IN, NH, NV, and OH

Obama leads by five points or more in CO, VA, and NV He holds smaller leads in FL and OH.

The good news for Obama is that if he can hold on to PA, he only needs to win one of those states to win.

So how big will his win be?

(Click on State or Table Below for Latest Polls and to Change Status)

The election is still a few days away, and yet the media and the American public have already gone through a subtle shift in mindset. Most Americans believe that Barack Obama will be the 44^th President of the United States, and the media has fueled this belief by referring to the McCain campaign in the past tense and reporting blame and tension within the campaign.

Assuming that Obama will win the election (which is a big assumption), one must wonder what the next great storyline will be in America’s never ending Presidential campaign. Pundits, pollsters, and bloggers will almost immediately begin to speculate about the 2012 election, and to a certain extent, they already have. So who will step into the GOP candidate power vacuum created by a McCain loss? I’d say the two main contenders as of right now would certainly be Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, with the edge going to Palin. 

As reports continue to leak out of the McCain campaign regarding internal tension between the candidate and his running mate, many have speculated that Governor Palin already has her sights set on a 2012 campaign. A 2012 Palin campaign would draw many similarities with the 2008 Obama campaign. A relative unknown for most of her political life, Palin gained widespread  attention in 2008 just as Barack Obama began to gain acclaim  after his speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention. If Palin made a 2012 bid for the presidency,  Republicans would begin to look at Palin as a blank slate, a savior to the party who represented the ideas of many. Far and center right Republicans would begin to paint a picture of the Sarah Palin they wanted to see, just as Obama was treated as a political Rorschach test in late 2007 and early 2008. 

Palin would almost certainly represent change, and would echo many of the key tenets of the 2008 Obama campaign. As the incumbent president, Obama would lose any claim to the words “change” or “hope”, he would be running as the establishment candidate. And yet, Sarah Palin would have an additional four years of “maverick” experience under her belt, while maintaining the image of a Washington outsider. 

Palin would have a field of experienced grey haired Washington insiders to compete with throughout the 2012 GOP Primary season. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee would be to Palin what Hillary Clinton and John Edwards were to Obama. If Palin is able to own the “change” and maverick image that she has worked so hard to create throughout the 2008 campaign, then I suspect she would be competitive against her more experienced opponents. 

This year, America fell head over heels for a fresh face who ran on a message of change, and the likes of whom had never been seen on the national stage. Should Barack Obama prove victorious next week, it seems likely that 2012 would carry a similar narrative. Except this time, the players and roles will be switched.  

Joe the Who?

Jon Goldsmith

With the election a few days away now one can only wonder how Joe the Plumber, or Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher, will impact the race. Let’s just set the record straight before we talk about his possible impacts.

Some Fact checks:

Rumor: Joe the Plumber stated that he was making between $250,000 and $280,000 a year.

Verdict: According to MSNBC, Court records show that Joe made $40,000 in 2006.

Rumor: Joe is a “Plumber”

Verdict: According to the Associated Press, Wurzelbacher does not have a plumber’s license or apprenticeship.

Rumor: Joe believes that US citizens will be taxed without representation under Obama’s plan, supporting his claim by saying “the last time that happened a couple of guys got together and threw the Brits out.”

Verdict: True. Joe said this during an October interview with NBC Kare 11

Rumor: There is a judgement lien against Joe for failure to pay $1,182 of his Ohio state income taxes

Verdict: True, according to ABC News.

Rumor: Joe is not registered to vote in Ohio for the election

Verdict: True according to Time Magazine

Now on to the impacts. No one can deny that the recent uproar of Joe the Plumber has caused a small increase in McCain’s polling numbers and the energy of his campaign. More important than why, is how is he having such an effect? It’s startling. This man is a walking hypocrisy. Joe the Plumber is not even a Plumber! Joe doesn’t make more than $40,000 and wouldn’t even be affected by Obama’s tax plan, rendering his qualms completely void. Joe can’t even pay his taxes now, which begs the question, “couldn’t Joe use Obama’s tax cut?” Now on to his pathetic attempt at a historical quip. The founding fathers declared that “taxation without representation” was against their natural rights. Let’s break down “taxation without representation” because I think Joe is a little lost here. The founding fathers complaint, largely spearheaded by Ben Franklin, declared that the colonists were being taxed without any representation in British Parliament. Does Joe not have a Congressmen? A Senator? A right to vote? Right to referendum and recall? Joe if you don’t have any of those things, then yes, you are being taxed without representation. You do, however, and let us hope the voters are smart enough to know the difference between a cheap political quip and accurate historical fact.

I don’t think anyone can deny, however, that Joe is making an impact in this race. “Joe the construction workers” and “Joe the bricklayers” have been showing up at McCain-Palin rallies across the country and he has truly energized the working-class base of the Republican party.

Joe has recently declared in another false diatribe that Senator Obama is a socialist because he wants to “spread the wealth around.” Yes, Senator Obama did say such remarks, but they are not socialist. Obama is referring to the graduated-progressive income tax instituted by none other than Theodore Roosevelt, McCain’s “biggest hero.” It’s not socialism to believe that tax breaks for the lower classes will encourage people to spend more money and create more jobs. If the working classes have more money, they can buy the produced goods of the factories they work in; they can buy new cars, groceries, and supplies which guarantees a stimulation of the economy.

Trickle down on the other hand, puts all the wealth in the hands of the richest 1%, believing that with the extra money, the rich will expand their businesses and hire more people to stimulate the economy. The major problem with “trickle-down” is that it doesn’t trickle down enough. Not many of the richest 1% own businesses anymore. The largest growing “1% professions” are just that–professional! Doctors and lawyers make up a vast majority of that 1% and have no business to expand, or jobs to give out. All that they do with their tax cut is buy luxury items, which are more expensive and employ less people to produce.

Believing in tax cuts for the working class is not socialist, its intelligent. Reaganomic tax cuts have been around since the late 80′s with the same result–depressed prosperity. Under the Clinton administration, however, taxes were raised on the upper class and guess what happened? Prosperity. It’s time to go back to the 90′s.

Will Obama Close?

Obama’s up, but supporters are less than
confident.

It’s on the mind of every true blue supporter; will another one get stolen by either fraud or the bradley effect. Democrats remember that the exit polls predicted democratic winners in both 2000, and 2004. And while it isn’t largely spoken of, Ohio in 2004 was stolen just the same way Florida was on 2000. Obama is facing a number of hurdles in his way before he can be president. For those of you who don’t know, the Bradley effect refers to a politician who was the long time mayor of Los Angeles, ran for governor of California, and lost in a huge upset. In the final week, polls showed him up as much as 7 percent, however, a smaller number of voters, especially white voters voted for Bradley than polls indicated.

While much has happened in terms of tolerance since 1982, this specter has been looming over the heads of every democrat. According to some sources such as the New York Times, many think the Bradley effect could swipe as much as 6 percentage points away. If this happens, it will be truly heartbreaking. If Obama is up by any amount higher than 5 points and the  election is stolen by either racism or fraud, americans will lose all faith in democracy. If you thought 2000 made people lose faith in democracy, what will this do? We’ve had eight years of republicans, a failing economy, and no hope. I don’t think anyone can argue that if Obama were white, this election wouldn’t even be close.

Let’s not also forget that Obama is not a fantastic closer, he was pounding Hilary into a pulp and still couldn’t completely seal the deal until the end of the primaries. And lets not forget that McCain is a fighter and has been in this very position time and again. He has been written out countlesstimes only to come back and win. And while it might be somewhat preposterous to say, I think most Obama supporters are thanking the banking gods for delivering them the edge in this election.