A Day Frozen in Time, A Nation Thrust Towards the Future

By Max Godnick

I go to a school with six hundred well to do New Yorkers. My peers, and most members of my generation, have been long stricken with a case of apathy.  I never thought that in my adolescence, I would see my generation brought together over politics and history.

Yesterday changed all that. Throughout the day, I could tell I was living out the pages of my grandchildren’s textbooks. Something was different. There was an undeniable energy in the air. People knew something was coming. While they may not have watched the primaries, followed the veepstakes, or seen the debates, they realized that their country was on the brink of a new era; a true turning point in a sometimes negative and drawn out history.

At eleven o’clock, time stopped. Horns honked, pots and pans were smashed, and fireworks were set off. A catharsis was about to begin. I looked outside my window and saw a scene straight out of a movie. People were cheering, strangers were jumping amongst one another, they were chanting, they were elated; they recognized that the world was changing, and they would be at the center of it.

Granted, I live in New York City in a largely African American neighborhood. I bet the scene in rural Idaho looked a lot different. But it did not matter. The country came together for the first time since September 11th,  yet this time, it was in joy and elation rather than tragedy and despair.

Who knows whether Barack Obama will be a successful president. Many questions are still left to be answered. But the world will turn their heads towards America, and look to us in a positive light. Respect, dignity, and awe will grace the ground of the United States. Americans will become truly engaged in politics again. As Obama builds his candidacy, the nation will watch, rooting, or not rooting, for a new day in American politics and culture.

I do not think I will ever see a time like this one ever again in my lifetime. My generation, the “purple youth”, has engaged in its country and culture like I never expected it could. My city can finally unite, shedding racial barriers that have stood strong for hundreds of years, and my country can look towards the future and to a new path.

Politics really do not play such a large role in what happened yesterday and what will happen in the days and years to come. Sure, it is based around the political process, but it is more than that. It is a general consensus that “now” matters. Now is our chance and we must grasp it. Absorb the moment. This is a rare opportunity, that wont be felt again for many years to come.

Counties Counties Counties

Okay, so votes are beginning to trickle in. But lets remember, when it says 1% of precincts reporting…that means that about one district is reporting votes.

So lets look at some of these early states

Indiana: this is looking a lot closer than I had expected. While Mccain holds about a 4% lead now, Obama is running extremely competitive given that some of his strongest counties have not reported any votes yet. Lake County, which houses the African American stronghold of Gary, has not reported anything yet. Once Gary begins to come in, look for this to tighten up significantly.

Virginia: Mccainites, dont get excited. I know there is a 15% lead in Virginia right now, but the only counties that have reported are primarily in the southern region. Obama holds great strength in Northern and Eastern Virginia. Lots of money and attention were put in to Prince Edward county, keep an eye out for that.

We dont have much info on Ohio, but word is that Obama is leading.

The opposite is true for West Virginia, Mccain is leading.

Florida is not realistic right now. Obama holds a huge lead, but only about one county is in.

I’m still going to stick with my projections, but I am very intrigued by Indiana. Obama is over performing.

Be back soon.

Max

Pennsylvania: The state has been polling firmly for Obama for the entire campaign. PA, however, has also been rated the most likely state for voter fraud to occur in. This is the pivotal state. If McCain wins and pulls an upset, he is on the road to victory; however, if Obama wins, he only has to win one of the other battleground states to clinch the election. The McCain campaign has been spending enormous amounts of money and time in this state. The McCain camp needs this state to win.

Virginia: Perhaps the most important battle ground state. MSNBC and Real clear politics have had this state in the “lean obama” category for the last few weeks. This weekend, however, Obama’s lead narrowed significantly. This state is going to be very close. I put Obama to win by around 3 points or so. The state has been turning blue for a while and this could be it’s formal inauguration.

New Hampshire: This state has been blue since 2004 and will most likely go Obama. It’s not especially significant for either side but could be a good indication of what’s to come after their polls close.

North Carolina:  This state has been solidly red since 1976 and I think it will stay that way. The polls are nearly a dead even heat. It is important to note that the remaining undecided’s will most likely vote for McCain. They are the borderline voters who are not as comfortable with Obama’s ethnicity. All in all I’m calling this for a pretty easy +15 for John McCain.

Ohio: Another very important battleground, but not nearly as important as it was in 2004. Obama has been up here recently but polls dipped significantly this weekend. This is going to be a squeaker. I don’t think this state will be called by the networks until much later on in the night, perhaps even in days to come.

Indiana: The state has been solidly red for more than the last 40 years. This state has been slightly leaning McCain the entire election and I think that’s where it’s going to end up. Fairly easy +11 for McCain.

Florida: Fiasco’s in Florida again? Could it happen? I think so. The state has been hotly contested this season. Obama has only pulled ahead there recently. I think Obama is going to carry this state by slim margins–that is of course, only if polls in african american communities and jewish communities don’t come back with negative vote totals (knock on wood).

Georgia: Obama has been creeping back here. Bob Barr has siphoned off some of the republican votes and Obama could be competitive here. The large african american community could give him a pretty strong boost; however, I don’t think he has a strong enough shot to carry this state.

Missouri: This state has been a pretty firm tie throughout the election. In recent days, McCain has been edging forward in the polls and I think he will most likely carry this state. +11 for McCain.

Colorado: This state has been leaning blue throughout most of the election. I would be very surprised if McCain pulled an upset here. Having said that, the Obama camp is feeling somewhat nervous over the fact that early voting turnout has been pretty confined and hasn’t consisted of many people below the age of 35. Keep an eye out for this one.

New Mexico: This state has also been pretty blue throughout the entire election. The strong latino vote and recent migration of Jews could aid Obama win this state on his journey to the White House.

Nevada: This state has been inching more and more towards Obama. I’d be pretty surprised if he doesn’t carry it.

Arizona: Could McCain lose his home state? Yes, but it’s not very likely. McCain has been up by a few points going into the last weeks and I don’t think Obama has the support to truly carry that state.

Pro’s for Obama: Unfavorable Bush ratings, Strong Economy message, strong support from minorities, huge war chest of funds, unparalleled ground game (in Ohio, he has more offices than there are precincts), McCain will have to win either every toss-up state including Colorado or he would have to take Pennsylvania in a huge upset–something that is not very likely.

Pro’s for McCain: Experience, possible Bradley effect, legendary get-out the vote campaign,

All in all, I’m predicting 338 Obama to 200 McCain. I think Obama will take the popular by about 4 points.

Boy did I choose a good year to become a political junkie. I pity the budding pundits who came before me, those who were in my position in 2004, 1996, or 1976. Sure all elections are influential, but this one, this was something else. First black credible candidate, first woman credible candidate, a primary season that treated each state like it was the deciding factor, a come from behind primary victory for Mccain, a heated veepstakes ending with one of the most talked about vice presidential picks…ever?

And now, after 100 primaries (plus guam, puerto rico, and american samoa), 2 conventions, and 3 debates, I am forced to make my projections of what will happen tomorrow night.

I am by no means in the minority by believing Barack Obama will win. His ground game is too good, his fundraising too high, and his lead in the crucial swing state polls are too great, for John Mccain to squeak out the 270 needed electoral votes.

According to RealClearPolitics, with one day left to go, the swing states are

MT, AZ, ND, MO, CO, FL, GA, NC, VA, IN, NH, NV, and OH

Obama leads by five points or more in CO, VA, and NV He holds smaller leads in FL and OH.

The good news for Obama is that if he can hold on to PA, he only needs to win one of those states to win.

So how big will his win be?

(Click on State or Table Below for Latest Polls and to Change Status)

Joe the Who?

Jon Goldsmith

With the election a few days away now one can only wonder how Joe the Plumber, or Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher, will impact the race. Let’s just set the record straight before we talk about his possible impacts.

Some Fact checks:

Rumor: Joe the Plumber stated that he was making between $250,000 and $280,000 a year.

Verdict: According to MSNBC, Court records show that Joe made $40,000 in 2006.

Rumor: Joe is a “Plumber”

Verdict: According to the Associated Press, Wurzelbacher does not have a plumber’s license or apprenticeship.

Rumor: Joe believes that US citizens will be taxed without representation under Obama’s plan, supporting his claim by saying “the last time that happened a couple of guys got together and threw the Brits out.”

Verdict: True. Joe said this during an October interview with NBC Kare 11

Rumor: There is a judgement lien against Joe for failure to pay $1,182 of his Ohio state income taxes

Verdict: True, according to ABC News.

Rumor: Joe is not registered to vote in Ohio for the election

Verdict: True according to Time Magazine

Now on to the impacts. No one can deny that the recent uproar of Joe the Plumber has caused a small increase in McCain’s polling numbers and the energy of his campaign. More important than why, is how is he having such an effect? It’s startling. This man is a walking hypocrisy. Joe the Plumber is not even a Plumber! Joe doesn’t make more than $40,000 and wouldn’t even be affected by Obama’s tax plan, rendering his qualms completely void. Joe can’t even pay his taxes now, which begs the question, “couldn’t Joe use Obama’s tax cut?” Now on to his pathetic attempt at a historical quip. The founding fathers declared that “taxation without representation” was against their natural rights. Let’s break down “taxation without representation” because I think Joe is a little lost here. The founding fathers complaint, largely spearheaded by Ben Franklin, declared that the colonists were being taxed without any representation in British Parliament. Does Joe not have a Congressmen? A Senator? A right to vote? Right to referendum and recall? Joe if you don’t have any of those things, then yes, you are being taxed without representation. You do, however, and let us hope the voters are smart enough to know the difference between a cheap political quip and accurate historical fact.

I don’t think anyone can deny, however, that Joe is making an impact in this race. “Joe the construction workers” and “Joe the bricklayers” have been showing up at McCain-Palin rallies across the country and he has truly energized the working-class base of the Republican party.

Joe has recently declared in another false diatribe that Senator Obama is a socialist because he wants to “spread the wealth around.” Yes, Senator Obama did say such remarks, but they are not socialist. Obama is referring to the graduated-progressive income tax instituted by none other than Theodore Roosevelt, McCain’s “biggest hero.” It’s not socialism to believe that tax breaks for the lower classes will encourage people to spend more money and create more jobs. If the working classes have more money, they can buy the produced goods of the factories they work in; they can buy new cars, groceries, and supplies which guarantees a stimulation of the economy.

Trickle down on the other hand, puts all the wealth in the hands of the richest 1%, believing that with the extra money, the rich will expand their businesses and hire more people to stimulate the economy. The major problem with “trickle-down” is that it doesn’t trickle down enough. Not many of the richest 1% own businesses anymore. The largest growing “1% professions” are just that–professional! Doctors and lawyers make up a vast majority of that 1% and have no business to expand, or jobs to give out. All that they do with their tax cut is buy luxury items, which are more expensive and employ less people to produce.

Believing in tax cuts for the working class is not socialist, its intelligent. Reaganomic tax cuts have been around since the late 80′s with the same result–depressed prosperity. Under the Clinton administration, however, taxes were raised on the upper class and guess what happened? Prosperity. It’s time to go back to the 90′s.