Will Obama Close?

Obama’s up, but supporters are less than
confident.

It’s on the mind of every true blue supporter; will another one get stolen by either fraud or the bradley effect. Democrats remember that the exit polls predicted democratic winners in both 2000, and 2004. And while it isn’t largely spoken of, Ohio in 2004 was stolen just the same way Florida was on 2000. Obama is facing a number of hurdles in his way before he can be president. For those of you who don’t know, the Bradley effect refers to a politician who was the long time mayor of Los Angeles, ran for governor of California, and lost in a huge upset. In the final week, polls showed him up as much as 7 percent, however, a smaller number of voters, especially white voters voted for Bradley than polls indicated.

While much has happened in terms of tolerance since 1982, this specter has been looming over the heads of every democrat. According to some sources such as the New York Times, many think the Bradley effect could swipe as much as 6 percentage points away. If this happens, it will be truly heartbreaking. If Obama is up by any amount higher than 5 points and the  election is stolen by either racism or fraud, americans will lose all faith in democracy. If you thought 2000 made people lose faith in democracy, what will this do? We’ve had eight years of republicans, a failing economy, and no hope. I don’t think anyone can argue that if Obama were white, this election wouldn’t even be close.

Let’s not also forget that Obama is not a fantastic closer, he was pounding Hilary into a pulp and still couldn’t completely seal the deal until the end of the primaries. And lets not forget that McCain is a fighter and has been in this very position time and again. He has been written out countlesstimes only to come back and win. And while it might be somewhat preposterous to say, I think most Obama supporters are thanking the banking gods for delivering them the edge in this election.

Who cares about change…what about the laughter?

Max Godnick 

A silly Bush impression. A shocking gaffe in a Bush speech. Jokes about Mccain’s age. Jokes about Alaska. Turn on any late night talk show and I guarantee you will see one, if not more of these. The comedy world has made a virtual industry of Bush jokes over the last eight years. Books have been made featuring his funniest one liners. A plethora of t-shirts designed featuring Bush in an embarrassing situation. Television writers have made an art out of political jokes featuring Bush and other members of the GOP.

But now, picture January 20^th 2009. Barack Obama has just been sworn in as the 44^th President of the United States of America. The media is fawning over the newly elected leader; there is a lack of cynicism that has not been seen since Watergate. But where is the laughter? 

Late night TV has already had trouble hitting the right tone when making “Obama jokes”. Any joke made about the Senator usually involves the sensational aspects of his campaign and his “messiah-esque” qualities. But surely these jokes cannot keep the entire industry afloat for the next four or eight years. David Letterman will most certainly see a challenge in finding notable gaffes from Obama speeches to include in his now famous “Great Moments in Presidential Speeches” feature, one that has been running for the past five years. Impressionists will see great difficulty in padding their routines with an Obama impression. Even SNL, a virtual impressions factory, has had trouble finding someone to impersonate Obama.

Television writers will have trouble writing jokes about the first African American president. They are faced with a number of sensitive issues regarding race, that if taken the wrong way, could ignite a firestorm. Writers will have to find a way to poke fun at Obama about qualities we may not even know about yet. 

Granted, Bush jokes will still be made. It is still comically acceptable to make Clinton jokes regarding the Lewinsky scandal and the former Presidents other romantic endeavors. But still, people don’t tune into their favorite talk shows to see eight year old jokes. They want cutting commentary on the issues of the day. I have faith that the writers will find their groove in following the Obama presidency. But it will be a challenge. Despite all the criticism about media bias during this campaign, talk show writers might be secretly pulling for a Mccain victory. Old jokes and Alaska jokes never grow stale.  

Jon Goldsmith 

Both candidates proved one thing. They are both ready and capable of leading the nation. The debate was close, well argued on all sides. However, Obama could have done a much better job. He could have delivered a knock-out blow. Obama did not tie McCain to Bush enough and did not outwardly blame the current economic recession on the Bush-McCain deregulation policies.

One thing Obama needed to do, and did, was end rumors that he would raise taxes for nearly all Americans when in fact he will lower them by 95%. Obama struck hard, saying, “the fundamentals of the economy have to be measured by whether or not the middle class is getting a fair shake…and when you look at [McCain's] tax policies you are neglecting people who are really struggling right now [and] it’s a continuation of the last eight years.” McCain definitely grew stronger as the topics of the debate shifted from the economy to foreign affairs. Foreign policy should have been a clean sweep for McCain, but Obama remained strong and tough and proved that he was not weak. McCain was perhaps strongest when he said, “I don’t think I need any on-the-job training…I am ready to go at it right now.” Overall no candidate got a knockout blow but Obama probably finished with a slight edge. 

More amusing, however, was the propaganda on both sides. Keith Olbermann made the assertion that McCain admitted the government tortured people, and dramatically lost the debate. And of course, Fox News claimed Obama was out of touch and that McCain had dominated.

By Max Godnick

I don’t really think Mccain’s boost is such a surprise. Other than the ten point lead in the Gallup tracking poll, Mccain only has a one to three point lead in most polls, and one week ago, he was virtually tied with Obama. I don’t think a presidential candidate has ever not received a boost after the convention and considering how Obama really only had one day to let his boost be seen (because Palin frenzy began a mere twelve hours after Obama’s acceptance speech, and the GOP convention began three days afterwards), Mccain’s sudden lead seems less than shocking. 

Everyone knows the race is close. Everyone knows Sarah Palin changed everything up. Everyone knows Obama is no longer the guaranteed forty fourth president of the United States, these are all headline stories of two weeks ago. The new themes and headlines will begin to trickle in as the Fall campaign commences. Sixty days is a short time, and the election will come about very soon. The numbers from the past two days do show us now how close the race is, but this isn’t news. It merely prolongs a narrative into the next and final stretch of what has been a benchmark in American history. When the boosts and conventions are taken into effect, nothing has really changed. Mccain’s trajectory was nothing but upward a week ago, and has not jumped or declined significantly. So we are still tied, well, Mccain might be winning, but not by much. Nothing is set in stone, and all the drama over the numbers has just been fueled by news cycles. The next sixty days will be dictated by stories of greater surprise and value. 

The real decider will be in the coming weeks. As in recent presidential elections, debates are probably the largest factor of the late season campaign. With two candidates as eloquent and intelligent as Obama and Biden, I can’t help but feel optimistic.

By Max Godnick 

Sarah Palin…Yes Really

Gabriel Rom

The lady hasn’t been out in the political landscape for more than 24 hours and already, she’s being attacked from all sides, this site included. That of course is expected, she’s a 44 year gun-toting, anti abortion hockey mom from Alaska, but even so, the women is more dimensional than many are giving her credit for

Sarah Palin has an 80% approval rating in her home state, but like many Alaskian republicans has not been able to escape some of the corruption investigations that plagues the state’s party. Ironically, this is in part due to Palin’s relentless anti corruption crusades, taking on bigwhigs in the democratic party as well as her own.

You’re absolutely right on the cleansing that’s needed in our party, in the Republican Party.
- Sarah Palin [1]

The woman isn’t all talk though, she cannot and should not be written off just get as an empty dress (see bimbo) that was chosen just to court the evangelical and woman votes. Sarah Palin has taken on one of the most corrupt state parties in the country, she has made bitter enemies, and had to deal with (as of now) unsubstantiated corruption allegations, primarily propagated by the very people she has been trying to convict and/or oust. [2] She had to beat the incumbent republican to achieve her position, running on a moderate ticket for govenor that alienated many republicans, and additionally convinced the Lt.Gov. of Alaska Sean Parnell to jump into the GOP party to beat the incumbent.

Palin has also threatened to support democrats if GOP members wouldn’t support her tax and spend policies. Shes a shrewd, political, no-nonsense type of woman, and not the “beauty queen airhead” many have quickly pigeonholed her as.

That all being said, McCain’s VP choice is a risk, and a huge one at that. Palin does have blaringly obvious political purposes – Women, evangelicals (social conservatives), and McCain needs these votes. Barack Obama is winning this election, in the poll sna din the media, and McCain had to take a risk with his VP. But possibly unforseen by the McCain camp Palin’s pro-life anti-abortion sentiments pose a pandora’s box with voters. She may be able to bring in some hardline conservatives who were having doubts about McCain, but in the meantime she’ll also be losing a swath of liberal Hillary supporters who would have an incredibly hard time voting for a candidate who has a pro-life vp on the ticket.

What all this means for McCain, we will see in the upcoming weeks. I look forward to a Biden-Palin debate. I, and I think a good many others, have a feeling she’ll hold her own much better than the naysayers on left would wish to admit.