What’s Really Going on In Pyongyang

Gabriel Rom

North Korea’s recent nuclear tests as well as their repudiation of their long standing armistice with South Korea signals a radical change in the way North Korea’s leadership would like the country to be perceived by the rest of the world. Blatant, aggressive, volatile…North Korea can no longer be put on the backburner. Nations across the world have condemned the tests with varying degrees of intensity, but North Korea has got what it wanted: Attention.

Do these actions make strategic sense? The short answer is no. “The suddenness of the  nuclear test shows North Korea following military, not diplomatic logic,” Hideshi Takesada, a Korea expert at Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies, told Bloomberg News.

The Koreans have completely put diplomacy out of their minds, and are acting with military goals in mind, not diplomatic ones. Whether this change in attitude is an act to try and make diplomacy easier for the NoKos, or if it truly is the beginning of a military conflict in the area, is something no westerner and probably no one else besides Kim Jong-il and his closest advisers can know.

What we can deduce is this though: “During the past 40 years North Korean leaders have been blustery but fundamentally risk averse. They have done nothing that would risk the total destruction of their state…until now.”

The way Pyongyang has been acting in the past week demonstrates that they are willing to accept much larger and destructive risks than they were before. The question for Barack Obama and the rest of the world is this: Are the North Koreans posturing?

Consider this analogy (this will take a cursory understanding of Texas Hold Em’ poker): We’re at a poker table, and it’s North Korea’s turn to act. They raise big (the nuclear tests). Sitting across from NK is America and effectively all of the  Western powers.  Now it’s our turn to act. We have three options. Fold (Take no diplomatic, economic, or military action, basically keeping the situation static. Call (Some combination of economic and diplomatic response. Basically acknowledging that North Korea is a serious threat and that our response, whatever it is, must keep them in check. The risk level would be higher if we choose to call as we must remember exactly what we’re calling: A nuclear detonation from a rogue regime with a potentially mentally unstable leader. Finally, we can Reraise. This course of action would most likely include massive economic restrictions and likely be accompanied with a military campaign in the region. This response would obviously entail the most risk, but potentially the most reward.

Note: This analogy is simply meant to give context to an extremely complex situation. The Fold, Call, Re raise terminology is not hard and fast. For example one word, “call”, entails an indeterminable amount of strategies, contingency plans, and diplomatic philosophies of which any combination could be used. The only thing that unifies these responses under the word “call”, is that they maintain a certain level of restraint and risk aversion, as this is what philosophically defines a call in the poker world as well.  The world of geopolitics does not have to follow all the rules of the poker table. Additionally, remember that there are many other actors in this conflict (South Korea, Japan, China, etc)

These are Barack Obama’s options. Our next article will delve deeper into these options, discussing which action or combination of actions are the most rational and effective.

To our loyal (and extremely patient) readers,

Why have we waited over five months to start up again with TPY? Why, after such comprehensive and popular election coverage did we decide to hang up the towel (for the time being)? Well,to be brief: We got into college, we celebrated… we kept celebrating…  and we continued to celebrate even when our bodies told us we really shouldn’t be celebrating anymore. What you may or may not take ‘celebrating’ to be is something we, as highly responsible and intelligent teenagers, cannot comment on. Shame on you.

We’ll now that our three month hangover (figurative) is finally receding, and more importantly that the world is just as confusing, screwed up, and interesting as when we left it, we’ve decided to get back into the swing of things with both feet.

There are a few changes and improvements we’d like to inform you of.

Firstly: We didn’t completely waste the past quarter of a year. In our downtime we’ve given TPY a foothold on a few social networking sites. This shouldn’t be too surprising as basically any website or blog that wants to be viable in terms of viability needs to have a presence that extends past just one URL. Without further ado:

Facebook fan page:
Twitter page:

Secondly: TPY has a new writer: Tyler Holmes, a rising freshman at the University of Kansas. Look for Tyler to be writing about energy, education, and foreign policy.

Thirdly: Within the next week or so a ‘writer biography’ page will be set up giving our readers a more personal view of the TPY writing staff.

Finally, we’d like to reiterate TPY’s level of seriousness and journalistic commitment to the issues facing our world today. We put the time and effort into this site because the topics we cover, out of necessity, must be argued, supported, and criticized at the highest level of discussion and dialogue possible. Expect articles in the very immediate future on Barack Obama’s nomination of Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court, The current GOP identity crisis, North Korea’s increasing nuclear volatilty, Pakistan’s growing instability, and the current state of the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

Stay tuned, and get ready. We’re back and we’re here to stay.

- Gabriel Rom

How To Be A Waitress

Emma Johnson

Guest Contributor

Jessica Rasinski is 21 years old and a hostess at one of the most popular restaurants in Manhattan, the Waverly Inn and Garden. She went to a prestigious all-girls school on the Upper East Side and, never went to college. People then and even now, continue to ask her, “How did a girl with so much potential end up a hostess?” When they ask, as they commonly do, Jessica calmly replies, “a series of fortunate events.” This response, as intended, “Usually creates even more curiosity and alleviates any potential tension.” She proudly explained. “Important people walk through that door every night so consumed with the other so-called VIP’s and what they think that they usually don’t even look up to say hello or acknowledge my existence. When one of these “important people” happens to be the father or mother of one of my close friends from high school it usually takes them more than a minute to make the connection.”

As she continues a smile widens across her face, “Mr. Bronfman? I’ll say and he will look up at me as though he were looking at a sign and not a person until I make clear, “Its me, Jessica, I went to school with your daughter Hannah”, and then the light bulb goes off.” She says as she makes the hand motion of turning on a light with her hand. “Its like he suddenly realizes I’m one of them and instantly wants to help me across the divide. Like he was looking at a countryman in a foreign prison camp. Its so weird.” She explained what she meant by “across the divide” she seemed ready for the question, or at least my ignorance. “Like eager to sugar-coat the situation – my situation. And make it seem like it fits into their standardized track to success. They will say, ‘Oh – wow! I didn’t know you were working here… how cool!’ or ‘So are you an actress?’, fishing for a way to put the pieces together now that I have aligned myself with their children and therefore them – its suddenly in their interest to posh-up my position and place in life… especially in front of their friends.”  Jessica seems confidant, especially in regard to her understanding of values based on wealth and their often inverse relationship with moral fiber.

In a world that is rapidly changing, with the fist black president about to take office and, the financial back lash of generations of Americans dependent on easy money about to take its toll; the life of Jessica Rasinski seem not only reasonable but almost desirable. “I like what I do and I’m really good at it. I love the people I work with and we don’t all have our heads up our asses. We are reminded constantly that we are all serving somebody, that humility is the only way to live this life gracefully, and with the most friends. I look at what’s happening with Wall Street and our relative inability to undo the misguided choices made by guys like Alan Greenspan and I feel terrible but at the same time kinda validated. I know it sounds bad, but I think this country needs a reality check.” And boy doesn’t that seem to be the consensus.

“My job is to help people feel comfortable. I greet them as they come in and, show them that its ok. I show them where their table is and, how to sit at it. If there is no table available for them, I show them where to stand and how to feel good about the wait. In many ways, I feel like President Obama and I would have a lot in common if, we ever sat down and went through it.” Jessica said in a joking yet, challenging tone. “I mean, I work at a restaurant that is always overbooked, that doesn’t have a phone line, that only takes reservations two days in advance and almost always – even if you do go all the way to Waverly Place to make one – will only have tables available for you at six o’clock or ten thirty pm because the space is so limited and the demand is so high.” Sound familiar?

Both Jessica’s mother and father went to college and, although she is not following in their path she feels confident in her decision. “I am deeply grateful to be able to work at a place like Waverly. At times the job is demanding and stressful but it has been entirely worth it. Since working here my eyes have been opened to how many possibilities there are in life.”

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Hillary For secretary of state? 

This article is probably a little bit overdue for you TPY readers; however, Wednesday President-elect Barack Obama met with Senator Hillary Clinton at his Chicago office to discuss the secretary of state job (according to advisers from both groups). If there’s one thing we know about Hillary, it’s that if she did not want the job she would have squashed any rumors the moment they surfaced to prevent any consensus that she had been turned down for a job she actually wanted. What are the pros and cons for both sides? Well, for Obama, he will successful curtail a rival and ensure that she cannot speak out against his administration. He would also appease anxious Hillary voters who voted for Obama because of party affiliation alone or even ones who voted for McCain out of bitterness. Another “pro” is that he could show the world that he is committed to diplomacy and has a political agenda for women as well. Most importantly, he could really unite the party even further. The only real cons for Obama are the political baggage Clinton brings to his “government of change” with 35 years in the senate and a potential power struggle between her and Vice President-elect Joe Biden for who controls the foreign policy stage. Obama faces possibly an even bigger con if all this talk about Hillary as secretary of state leads to nothing and old wounds from Clinton voters could be reopened. 

The pros for Clinton are quite obvious. She would gain one of the most prestigious jobs in the country and leave a senate in which she has only minimal influence.  Clinton has approached both Harry Reid and Ed Kennedy about her being potential chairwoman for health care committee but both pretty much shot-down the idea. The only major cons for the entire Clinton family is that Bill’s international outreach program would have to be inspected and curbed in many aspects to prevent any conflict of interest. The family would also have to disclose much more about Bill Clinton’s earnings, especially from outside sources. 

In this writers own personal opinion, I think it’s a wise choice. Clinton is an internationally respected diplomat and her name alone carries quite a bit of weight. She is definitely qualified for the job and has many of the same values Obama does. It seems to me that Obama is trying to mirror a Lincoln presidency in the sense of bringing former rivals to the cabinet tables. Lincoln invited all of his former foes to serve his presidency and it seems that Obama is doing the same. Rumor has it that even John McCain could be asked for a post or support for a specific agenda. I think that turning Hillary from a potential adversary into a team member is a great boost and pick up for his administration. 

Evening Update

9:30

Polls are now open in the entire mainland United States. Early polls out of tiny New Hampshire towns indicate Obama won big there. This is promising news for Obama here is that this could be an indicator of what’s to come. New Hampshire is by no means a solid blue state and the high Obama turnout in those precincts could mean high turnout and more importantly an Obama win fairly early into the night.

So far,  election day problems have occurred in Missouri where polling stations received the wrong identification books for their counties. Philadelphia also has their share of ballot breakdowns going on. If 50% of the polls break down, emergency paper ballots will be distributed–something I don’t think either side wants to see.

7:30 PM

Obama wins Vermont. McCain wins Kentucky. No surprises. Currently Obama is up in North Carolina and Florida but with not enough precincts reporting to make a significant call. Obama lags in Indiana by about 3 points in Indiana with about 20% reporting–I would be surprised if this state doesn’t go red. Ohio is too early to call as is West Virginia, South Carolina, and Georgia.

8:50: Obama wins Pennsylvania. The path for McCain is narrowing my friends. Victory for the Obama camp is within site. Florida is looking healthy for Obama. He is out preforming Kerry in all of the counties across the state. The nail in the coffin here will be the Orlando area–look here for the presidency. Ohio is too early to call, but strong numbers from Obama look good. New Hampshire is blue now with overwhelming support for Obama. North Carolina is tilting Obama as well. Virginia is so far the only state Obama is underpreforming in a little bit. The northeastern districts haven’t been counted yet so it’s still to early to call.

In terms of the senate race, Kay Hagan just defeated Incumbent Senator Dole in a hotly contested race. Good news all around for the boys in blue.

10:20

Put the nail in the coffin. This one’s over folks. Oddly enough, however, the popular vote is very close. Expect California to increase the margins a bit. Virginia is extremely close coming down to a few thousand votes and florida seems to be tilting Obama.

Pennsylvania: The state has been polling firmly for Obama for the entire campaign. PA, however, has also been rated the most likely state for voter fraud to occur in. This is the pivotal state. If McCain wins and pulls an upset, he is on the road to victory; however, if Obama wins, he only has to win one of the other battleground states to clinch the election. The McCain campaign has been spending enormous amounts of money and time in this state. The McCain camp needs this state to win.

Virginia: Perhaps the most important battle ground state. MSNBC and Real clear politics have had this state in the “lean obama” category for the last few weeks. This weekend, however, Obama’s lead narrowed significantly. This state is going to be very close. I put Obama to win by around 3 points or so. The state has been turning blue for a while and this could be it’s formal inauguration.

New Hampshire: This state has been blue since 2004 and will most likely go Obama. It’s not especially significant for either side but could be a good indication of what’s to come after their polls close.

North Carolina:  This state has been solidly red since 1976 and I think it will stay that way. The polls are nearly a dead even heat. It is important to note that the remaining undecided’s will most likely vote for McCain. They are the borderline voters who are not as comfortable with Obama’s ethnicity. All in all I’m calling this for a pretty easy +15 for John McCain.

Ohio: Another very important battleground, but not nearly as important as it was in 2004. Obama has been up here recently but polls dipped significantly this weekend. This is going to be a squeaker. I don’t think this state will be called by the networks until much later on in the night, perhaps even in days to come.

Indiana: The state has been solidly red for more than the last 40 years. This state has been slightly leaning McCain the entire election and I think that’s where it’s going to end up. Fairly easy +11 for McCain.

Florida: Fiasco’s in Florida again? Could it happen? I think so. The state has been hotly contested this season. Obama has only pulled ahead there recently. I think Obama is going to carry this state by slim margins–that is of course, only if polls in african american communities and jewish communities don’t come back with negative vote totals (knock on wood).

Georgia: Obama has been creeping back here. Bob Barr has siphoned off some of the republican votes and Obama could be competitive here. The large african american community could give him a pretty strong boost; however, I don’t think he has a strong enough shot to carry this state.

Missouri: This state has been a pretty firm tie throughout the election. In recent days, McCain has been edging forward in the polls and I think he will most likely carry this state. +11 for McCain.

Colorado: This state has been leaning blue throughout most of the election. I would be very surprised if McCain pulled an upset here. Having said that, the Obama camp is feeling somewhat nervous over the fact that early voting turnout has been pretty confined and hasn’t consisted of many people below the age of 35. Keep an eye out for this one.

New Mexico: This state has also been pretty blue throughout the entire election. The strong latino vote and recent migration of Jews could aid Obama win this state on his journey to the White House.

Nevada: This state has been inching more and more towards Obama. I’d be pretty surprised if he doesn’t carry it.

Arizona: Could McCain lose his home state? Yes, but it’s not very likely. McCain has been up by a few points going into the last weeks and I don’t think Obama has the support to truly carry that state.

Pro’s for Obama: Unfavorable Bush ratings, Strong Economy message, strong support from minorities, huge war chest of funds, unparalleled ground game (in Ohio, he has more offices than there are precincts), McCain will have to win either every toss-up state including Colorado or he would have to take Pennsylvania in a huge upset–something that is not very likely.

Pro’s for McCain: Experience, possible Bradley effect, legendary get-out the vote campaign,

All in all, I’m predicting 338 Obama to 200 McCain. I think Obama will take the popular by about 4 points.

Joe the Who?

Jon Goldsmith

With the election a few days away now one can only wonder how Joe the Plumber, or Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher, will impact the race. Let’s just set the record straight before we talk about his possible impacts.

Some Fact checks:

Rumor: Joe the Plumber stated that he was making between $250,000 and $280,000 a year.

Verdict: According to MSNBC, Court records show that Joe made $40,000 in 2006.

Rumor: Joe is a “Plumber”

Verdict: According to the Associated Press, Wurzelbacher does not have a plumber’s license or apprenticeship.

Rumor: Joe believes that US citizens will be taxed without representation under Obama’s plan, supporting his claim by saying “the last time that happened a couple of guys got together and threw the Brits out.”

Verdict: True. Joe said this during an October interview with NBC Kare 11

Rumor: There is a judgement lien against Joe for failure to pay $1,182 of his Ohio state income taxes

Verdict: True, according to ABC News.

Rumor: Joe is not registered to vote in Ohio for the election

Verdict: True according to Time Magazine

Now on to the impacts. No one can deny that the recent uproar of Joe the Plumber has caused a small increase in McCain’s polling numbers and the energy of his campaign. More important than why, is how is he having such an effect? It’s startling. This man is a walking hypocrisy. Joe the Plumber is not even a Plumber! Joe doesn’t make more than $40,000 and wouldn’t even be affected by Obama’s tax plan, rendering his qualms completely void. Joe can’t even pay his taxes now, which begs the question, “couldn’t Joe use Obama’s tax cut?” Now on to his pathetic attempt at a historical quip. The founding fathers declared that “taxation without representation” was against their natural rights. Let’s break down “taxation without representation” because I think Joe is a little lost here. The founding fathers complaint, largely spearheaded by Ben Franklin, declared that the colonists were being taxed without any representation in British Parliament. Does Joe not have a Congressmen? A Senator? A right to vote? Right to referendum and recall? Joe if you don’t have any of those things, then yes, you are being taxed without representation. You do, however, and let us hope the voters are smart enough to know the difference between a cheap political quip and accurate historical fact.

I don’t think anyone can deny, however, that Joe is making an impact in this race. “Joe the construction workers” and “Joe the bricklayers” have been showing up at McCain-Palin rallies across the country and he has truly energized the working-class base of the Republican party.

Joe has recently declared in another false diatribe that Senator Obama is a socialist because he wants to “spread the wealth around.” Yes, Senator Obama did say such remarks, but they are not socialist. Obama is referring to the graduated-progressive income tax instituted by none other than Theodore Roosevelt, McCain’s “biggest hero.” It’s not socialism to believe that tax breaks for the lower classes will encourage people to spend more money and create more jobs. If the working classes have more money, they can buy the produced goods of the factories they work in; they can buy new cars, groceries, and supplies which guarantees a stimulation of the economy.

Trickle down on the other hand, puts all the wealth in the hands of the richest 1%, believing that with the extra money, the rich will expand their businesses and hire more people to stimulate the economy. The major problem with “trickle-down” is that it doesn’t trickle down enough. Not many of the richest 1% own businesses anymore. The largest growing “1% professions” are just that–professional! Doctors and lawyers make up a vast majority of that 1% and have no business to expand, or jobs to give out. All that they do with their tax cut is buy luxury items, which are more expensive and employ less people to produce.

Believing in tax cuts for the working class is not socialist, its intelligent. Reaganomic tax cuts have been around since the late 80′s with the same result–depressed prosperity. Under the Clinton administration, however, taxes were raised on the upper class and guess what happened? Prosperity. It’s time to go back to the 90′s.

Will Obama Close?

Obama’s up, but supporters are less than
confident.

It’s on the mind of every true blue supporter; will another one get stolen by either fraud or the bradley effect. Democrats remember that the exit polls predicted democratic winners in both 2000, and 2004. And while it isn’t largely spoken of, Ohio in 2004 was stolen just the same way Florida was on 2000. Obama is facing a number of hurdles in his way before he can be president. For those of you who don’t know, the Bradley effect refers to a politician who was the long time mayor of Los Angeles, ran for governor of California, and lost in a huge upset. In the final week, polls showed him up as much as 7 percent, however, a smaller number of voters, especially white voters voted for Bradley than polls indicated.

While much has happened in terms of tolerance since 1982, this specter has been looming over the heads of every democrat. According to some sources such as the New York Times, many think the Bradley effect could swipe as much as 6 percentage points away. If this happens, it will be truly heartbreaking. If Obama is up by any amount higher than 5 points and the  election is stolen by either racism or fraud, americans will lose all faith in democracy. If you thought 2000 made people lose faith in democracy, what will this do? We’ve had eight years of republicans, a failing economy, and no hope. I don’t think anyone can argue that if Obama were white, this election wouldn’t even be close.

Let’s not also forget that Obama is not a fantastic closer, he was pounding Hilary into a pulp and still couldn’t completely seal the deal until the end of the primaries. And lets not forget that McCain is a fighter and has been in this very position time and again. He has been written out countlesstimes only to come back and win. And while it might be somewhat preposterous to say, I think most Obama supporters are thanking the banking gods for delivering them the edge in this election.

Why Hasn’t anyone noticed?

North Korea appeared to be opening its doors…the US blew it.

Jon Goldsmith

With all the election buzz and presidential debates in full swing, North Korean nuclear rearmament has remained largely out of the news. On October third, the New York Times reported that the American envoy sent to North Korea to discuss the now, failed, nuclear disarmament agreement came back to South Korea empty handed. The original deal was suppose to consist of an initial shipment of 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil and a lift on economic sanctions in exchange for the shutdown of the Yongbyon reactor in Pyongyang. North Korea, and the United States in addition to Japan, South Korea, China, and Russia upheld the deal. Now, however, the deal is official in flames. Before the envoy, Christopher R. Hill, left for North Korea in early october, “senior State Department Officials portrayed the trip as a last-ditch effort to save the deal” (NY Times).

The deal has largely collapsed because President Bush failed to live up to the promise on removing North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism–as he had announced he would in June. Instead, Bush made a whole set of new demands, most significantly being that North Korea would have to agree to a very intrusive, and strict nuclear disarmament verification system before the US would agree to any further North Korean demands.

North Korea has already started rearming itself, and many analysts say the highly publicized shutdown of the Yongbyon reactor is largely insignificant because it can be reconstructed quite easily. As North Korea launched several short-range ballistic missiles in a series of tests this week,  the deal appears to be over. North Korea will continue funding other rogue states like Syria with weapons and nuclear technology, and will continue enriching uranium in hopes of making a nuclear warhead.

It seems the Bush administration has lost one of its last solaces of success in now two failed terms and will leave the issue of North Korea to the next president.

While it is completely unacceptable for North Korea to rearm its nuclear arsenal, most fault goes to the United States and the Bush administration. The North Koreans are obviously skeptical of the west and the United States and the first thing the United States does is fail to live up to an agreement. How could anyone expect anything different would happen? There was an opportunity. North Korea appeared to be opening its doors. The New York Philharmonic was invited to play there, journalists were allowed in the secret state, and quite simply…the US blew it.

What can really be done? North Korea has a more than formidable military force with well over 3,000 main battle tanks and thousands of self propelled artillery units. The Korean People’s Army is also not the fighting force it use to be. North Korea has invested heavily in upgrading their archaic chinese and russian hardware. In addition, they have a total active and reserve fighting force of nearly 8,000,000. Now if that doesn’t scare you, this might. North Korea has a large stockpile of both medium and long-range ballistic missiles that can strike anywhere from South Korea to Tokyo. In addition, The Taepodong-2 missile is currently under development which is expected to be able to reach parts of North America.

(Diagram by http://www.militarypictures.info/missiles/north_korea.jpg.html) Special Thanks

Sadly, this problem cannot be solved until there is a new president. Kim Jong-il will not trust president Bush again. It will be left up to either Obama or McCain to try to reverse yet another failure of the last disastrous eight years.